Showing posts with label Human Behavior. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Human Behavior. Show all posts
Monday, May 25, 2009
Friday, May 16, 2008
Fishy Economic Numbers
From the Daily Reckoning - 05/16/2008:
"Last month, the price of gasoline went down 2%, says the Labor Department.
Wait a minute. Do you remember gasoline prices going down in April? We don't. As we recall, oil prices were soaring…and so was the price of gasoline.
We're beginning to sniff something funny in the air…a rat.
...
Generally, we don't trust numbers. Who can trust a 5 after all - with a bottom like a communist sickle and its top nicked from a swastika? Who can trust an eight - wandering back and forth and never getting anywhere? And what about the zero? What does it mean? You put it in front of a number and it means nothing. You put it behind…and all of a sudden you've got 10 times as many. So, let's look a little more at those numbers - that is, at the crooked 4s, the slick 6s, and the empty 0s - put out by the feds.
Getting back to the price of gasoline, we check the records from NY gasoline futures trading and find the price actually rose 12% in April. How come the feds put it down as minus 2%? Turns out, they made a 'seasonal adjustment.' But turning plus 12 into minus two sounds like more than an adjustment; it sounds like either magic or major surgery…like turning a prince into a frog or a fat man into a slim woman.
Elsewhere, we find the feds working their magic on all the primary numbers. The IMF, for examples, says food prices rose 43% last year. Yet, after the feds waved their wands, U.S. food costs were up only 5.1%. And import costs rose 15% year to year - according to the numbers when they first got off the boat. But by the time the Labor Department statisticians had finished 'adjusting' them, they were down to only 0.2%.
Only investors, of course, are gullible enough to believe the government numbers. Consumers believe the numbers they see at the checkout counters and the pumps. What they see is sharply rising prices."
"Last month, the price of gasoline went down 2%, says the Labor Department.
Wait a minute. Do you remember gasoline prices going down in April? We don't. As we recall, oil prices were soaring…and so was the price of gasoline.
We're beginning to sniff something funny in the air…a rat.
...
Generally, we don't trust numbers. Who can trust a 5 after all - with a bottom like a communist sickle and its top nicked from a swastika? Who can trust an eight - wandering back and forth and never getting anywhere? And what about the zero? What does it mean? You put it in front of a number and it means nothing. You put it behind…and all of a sudden you've got 10 times as many. So, let's look a little more at those numbers - that is, at the crooked 4s, the slick 6s, and the empty 0s - put out by the feds.
Getting back to the price of gasoline, we check the records from NY gasoline futures trading and find the price actually rose 12% in April. How come the feds put it down as minus 2%? Turns out, they made a 'seasonal adjustment.' But turning plus 12 into minus two sounds like more than an adjustment; it sounds like either magic or major surgery…like turning a prince into a frog or a fat man into a slim woman.
Elsewhere, we find the feds working their magic on all the primary numbers. The IMF, for examples, says food prices rose 43% last year. Yet, after the feds waved their wands, U.S. food costs were up only 5.1%. And import costs rose 15% year to year - according to the numbers when they first got off the boat. But by the time the Labor Department statisticians had finished 'adjusting' them, they were down to only 0.2%.
Only investors, of course, are gullible enough to believe the government numbers. Consumers believe the numbers they see at the checkout counters and the pumps. What they see is sharply rising prices."
Friday, April 11, 2008
How do we KNOW the things we believe?
“Each of us has life view. For most of us, our view results more from where we were born, who our parents were, and what schools we attended than a careful examination of issues. Yet our life view influences every thought we have, every word we speak, and every action we take.” - The Man in the Mirror P. 38
"That illustrates what the psychoanalysts so much emphasize -- the immensely stronger hold upon us that our very early associations have than those of later times." - Bertrand Russell
"Systematic thinking is apparently a comparatively late development in human experience; it has not played any great part in human life until within the last 3,000 years. And even today those who really control and order their thoughts are but a small minority of mankind. Most of the world still lives by imagination and passion." A Short History of the World, H.G. Wells P. 37
"We want to stand upon our own feet and look fair and square at the world -- its good facts, its bad facts, its beauties, and its ugliness; see the world as it is and be not afraid of it. Conquer the world by intelligence and not merely by being slavishly subdued by the terror that comes from it. ... We ought to stand up and look the world frankly in the face. We ought to make the best we can of the world, and if it is not so good as we wish, after all it will still be better than what these others have made of it in all these ages. A good world needs knowledge, kindliness, and courage; it does not need a regretful hankering after the past or a fettering of the free intelligence by the words uttered long ago by ignorant men. It needs a fearless outlook and a free intelligence. It needs hope for the future, not looking back all the time toward a past that is dead, which we trust will be far surpassed by the future that our intelligence can create." - Bertrand Russell
"That illustrates what the psychoanalysts so much emphasize -- the immensely stronger hold upon us that our very early associations have than those of later times." - Bertrand Russell
"Systematic thinking is apparently a comparatively late development in human experience; it has not played any great part in human life until within the last 3,000 years. And even today those who really control and order their thoughts are but a small minority of mankind. Most of the world still lives by imagination and passion." A Short History of the World, H.G. Wells P. 37
"We want to stand upon our own feet and look fair and square at the world -- its good facts, its bad facts, its beauties, and its ugliness; see the world as it is and be not afraid of it. Conquer the world by intelligence and not merely by being slavishly subdued by the terror that comes from it. ... We ought to stand up and look the world frankly in the face. We ought to make the best we can of the world, and if it is not so good as we wish, after all it will still be better than what these others have made of it in all these ages. A good world needs knowledge, kindliness, and courage; it does not need a regretful hankering after the past or a fettering of the free intelligence by the words uttered long ago by ignorant men. It needs a fearless outlook and a free intelligence. It needs hope for the future, not looking back all the time toward a past that is dead, which we trust will be far surpassed by the future that our intelligence can create." - Bertrand Russell
Depressing? Maybe! Maybe Not!
"... if you accept the ordinary laws of science, you have to suppose that human life and life in general on this planet will die out in due course: it is a stage in the decay of the solar system; at a certain stage of decay you get the sort of conditions of temperature and so forth which are suitable to protoplasm, and there is life for a short time in the life of the whole solar system. You see in the moon the sort of thing to which the earth is tending -- something dead, cold, and lifeless.
I am told that that sort of view is depressing, and people will sometimes tell you that if they believed that, they would not be able to go on living. Do not believe it; it is all nonsense. Nobody really worries about much about what is going to happen millions of years hence. Even if they think they are worrying much about that, they are really deceiving themselves. They are worried about something much more mundane, or it may merely be a bad digestion; but nobody is really seriously rendered unhappy by the thought of something that is going to happen to this world millions and millions of years hence. Therefore, although it is of course a gloomy view to suppose that life will die out -- at least I suppose we may say so, although sometimes when I contemplate the things that people do with their lives I think it is almost a consolation -- it is not such as to render life miserable. It merely makes you turn your attention to other things. " - Bertrand Russell
I am told that that sort of view is depressing, and people will sometimes tell you that if they believed that, they would not be able to go on living. Do not believe it; it is all nonsense. Nobody really worries about much about what is going to happen millions of years hence. Even if they think they are worrying much about that, they are really deceiving themselves. They are worried about something much more mundane, or it may merely be a bad digestion; but nobody is really seriously rendered unhappy by the thought of something that is going to happen to this world millions and millions of years hence. Therefore, although it is of course a gloomy view to suppose that life will die out -- at least I suppose we may say so, although sometimes when I contemplate the things that people do with their lives I think it is almost a consolation -- it is not such as to render life miserable. It merely makes you turn your attention to other things. " - Bertrand Russell
Friday, April 04, 2008
Friday, March 28, 2008
On Human behavior ...
“[Humans] are perfectly capable of holding rational ideas and arguing, rationally, any point that suits them. One day, their reason leads them to positions that seem irrefutable; the next, the opposite opinion may seem just as irresistible, or even more so.
What is more remarkable is that they can hold an idea, and even cherish it, while doing something that is completely at odds with it.”
– Financial Reckoning Day P. 159
“People do not always act as they ‘should.’ Other people seem ‘irrational’ to us – especially those with whom we disagree. Nor do we always follow a logical and reasonable course of action. Instead, we are all swayed by tides of emotion … and occasionally swamped by them.”
- Financial Reckoning Day P. 1
“The world never works the way people think it does. That is not to say every idea about how the world works is wrong, but that often particular ideas about how it works will prove to be wrong if they are held in common. For only simple ideas can be held by large groups of people. Commonly held ideas are almost always dumbed down until they are practically lies …and often dangerous ones.”
- Financial Reckoning Day P. 3
“Public knowledge has its own peculiar character, for it must be dumbed down to a level that can be absorber by a mob.
A learned and thoughtful man may speak before a crowd and get no positive reaction whatsoever. A real demagogue, on the other hand, will distill his thoughts into a few simple-minded expressions and soon have enough admirers to run for public office. Readers who have wondered why it is that politicians all seem to be such simpletons now have their answer: It is a requirement for the job. For, en masse, mankind can neither understand complex or ambiguous thoughts nor remember them.”
- Financial Reckoning Day P. 168
“Democracy has a lie at its very core --- that you can cheat, murder, and steal as long as you get 51 percent of registered voters to go along with you. People are perfectly happy to vote their way into other people’s bank accounts --- and feel morally superior doing so. For they always do so in the name of some high-minded chutzpah, whether it is concern for the environment or the poor --- or making the world free!”
- Financial Reckoning Day P. 175
What is more remarkable is that they can hold an idea, and even cherish it, while doing something that is completely at odds with it.”
– Financial Reckoning Day P. 159
“People do not always act as they ‘should.’ Other people seem ‘irrational’ to us – especially those with whom we disagree. Nor do we always follow a logical and reasonable course of action. Instead, we are all swayed by tides of emotion … and occasionally swamped by them.”
- Financial Reckoning Day P. 1
“The world never works the way people think it does. That is not to say every idea about how the world works is wrong, but that often particular ideas about how it works will prove to be wrong if they are held in common. For only simple ideas can be held by large groups of people. Commonly held ideas are almost always dumbed down until they are practically lies …and often dangerous ones.”
- Financial Reckoning Day P. 3
“Public knowledge has its own peculiar character, for it must be dumbed down to a level that can be absorber by a mob.
A learned and thoughtful man may speak before a crowd and get no positive reaction whatsoever. A real demagogue, on the other hand, will distill his thoughts into a few simple-minded expressions and soon have enough admirers to run for public office. Readers who have wondered why it is that politicians all seem to be such simpletons now have their answer: It is a requirement for the job. For, en masse, mankind can neither understand complex or ambiguous thoughts nor remember them.”
- Financial Reckoning Day P. 168
“Democracy has a lie at its very core --- that you can cheat, murder, and steal as long as you get 51 percent of registered voters to go along with you. People are perfectly happy to vote their way into other people’s bank accounts --- and feel morally superior doing so. For they always do so in the name of some high-minded chutzpah, whether it is concern for the environment or the poor --- or making the world free!”
- Financial Reckoning Day P. 175
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Must be New Year's Resolution Time
I wish there was a way to graph the number of people walking on the skywalk during the lunch hour for the next 2 weeks. I bet most of them will be gone by then.
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